Michigan Aggregates Association

CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

The current forecast for the Presidential race by FiveThirtyEight is not good for Trump supporters and, conversely, great for Clinton supporters.  The “Polls Only” forcast give Clinton an 86% chance of winning and the “Polls Plus” forecast gives Clinton an 83% chance of winning.  Is it possible for Trump to stage a comeback?  Anything is possible but there is absolutely no historical evidence to suggest this is possible.  Nate Silver from FiveThirtyEight said the following; “Simply put, there isn’t a precedent for a candidate coming back to win this late in the game after being behind by as much as Trump is now. That’s not to say Trump is dead in the water — polls are not perfectly predictive — but history doesn’t offer much hope for candidates in Trump’s position”.  See for yourself www.fivethirtyeight.com.